Post by Deep Chocolate in Deep South on Aug 4, 2008 20:02:50 GMT -5
The New York Times
July 29, 2008
Political Memo
Chance of an Obama-Clinton Ticket Is Seen as Increasingly Unlikely
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
WASHINGTON — When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton abandoned her bid for the presidency and endorsed Senator Barack Obama in June, she made clear that she was interested in becoming his running mate, and Mr. Obama and his associates signaled respectfully that she would get full consideration.
But there is mounting evidence that Mr. Obama’s interest in Mrs. Clinton for the post has faded considerably, if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him.
In conversations, Mr. Obama’s advisers discuss Mrs. Clinton’s role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Mr. Obama’s running mate.
When Mr. Obama appeared Sunday on “Meet the Press” on NBC he offered a description of the kind of person he was looking for, hinting that it would not be someone who was identified strongly with Washington, a choice that would appear to leave out Mrs. Clinton. His associates said this description reflected the lack of serious thought being given to Mrs. Clinton for the post.
The feeling goes both ways. Mrs. Clinton has told associates in recent days that she thinks there is little chance Mr. Obama will pick her and that she views the public pronouncements by some of Mr. Obama’s aides that she is under review as nothing more than a courtesy.
She has not been asked to provide written documentation to the committee vetting the background of candidates for Mr. Obama. Although Mrs. Clinton probably needs less flyspecking than almost anyone else in the field — considering how long she has been in public life and how intensively her past has been examined — the silence from that corner is being taken by Mrs. Clinton’s advisers as evidence of where she stands on Mr. Obama’s vice presidential list.
Mrs. Clinton’s boosters have not given up. “If he picks Hillary he gets her 18 million supporters and we would win in a cakewalk and control the White House for 16 years,” Terry McAuliffe, who was the chairman of her campaign, said Sunday in an interview.
Yet even Mr. McAuliffe, in a separate interview on MSNBC on Monday morning, seemed to acknowledge the diminished chances of Mrs. Clinton’s ending up on the ticket when he said he expected her role at the convention to consist of delivering a speech on Tuesday night. (If history is any guide, the vice presidential candidate speaks on Wednesday night; Mr. Obama’s advisers said they had not decided when Mrs. Clinton would speak.)
By every indication, Mr. Obama has not reached a decision. Given the political strength Mrs. Clinton exhibited as she dueled with Mr. Obama to the end of the primary season, it is conceivable — say, if polls over the next few weeks suddenly show him struggling against Senator John McCain — that Mr. Obama would turn to her. But his associates describe that as unlikely, saying that for a variety of reasons, Mr. Obama is not looking to have her as a running mate or serving with him in the White House.
Mr. Obama’s aides are confident that the passions of the primary season have given way to a more pragmatic view among Mrs. Clinton’s supporters and that Mr. Obama would not risk a major backlash from women or other constituencies associated with her if the vice presidential slot goes to someone else.
But the Obama camp has done little in public to prepare Clinton supporters for the increasing likelihood that she will not be on the ticket. There is no shortage of speculation among Mrs. Clinton’s supporters that she is very much in the running as Mr. Obama begins closing in on a decision.
The list of potential candidates includes Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, as well as Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, and other names of varying degrees of plausibility. The Democratic convention begins Aug. 25 in Denver, and Mr. Obama was said to be considering an announcement the week before, although aides said it could be earlier.
The arguments for picking Mrs. Clinton have always been highly pragmatic, based more on electoral politics than anything else, as Mr. McAuliffe suggested in pointing to the vote-getting power she had exhibited. (For what it is worth, some of Mr. McCain’s advisers said they viewed Mrs. Clinton as the single strongest candidate Mr. Obama could pick for those same reasons.)
Those arguments have not held much sway with Mr. Obama or his inner circle. They have indicated that any political benefits gained by putting Mrs. Clinton on the ticket would be outweighed by the costs.
Mr. Obama’s advisers say that a central message of his campaign — that he would represent a break from the way politics are conducted in Washington — would be tarnished by the simple act of linking himself to the family that has dominated Democratic politics since Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992.
In addition, a campaign marked by tight control and few displays of infighting (a structure that Mr. Obama’s advisers would like to replicate in the White House should he win) would, some of Mr. Obama’s associates said, be undermined by trying to merge with the Clintons. Several of his associates said they were particularly wary of trying to manage a campaign that included Mr. Clinton.
All this takes place against a backdrop of wary relations between the two campaigns. Strikingly, other than Mrs. Clinton’s former policy director, Neera Tanden, no other members of her current inner circle have found their way into the Obama camp. (Patti Solis Doyle, who was Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager but was forced out in a shakeup last February, is now in charge of setting up the vice presidential operation for Mr. Obama.)
There is also continued grousing within Mrs. Clinton’s circle that Mr. Obama is not doing more to help her pay off her debt, and continued grousing within Mr. Obama’s circle that Mrs. Clinton expects him to do much to help her repay her debt.
But Mrs. Clinton has made clear that she will do whatever Mr. Obama wants and has arranged a crowded schedule of appearances over the next two months on Mr. Obama’s behalf — some with him, but most on her own, an aide said.
www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/us/politics/29dems.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
July 29, 2008
Political Memo
Chance of an Obama-Clinton Ticket Is Seen as Increasingly Unlikely
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
WASHINGTON — When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton abandoned her bid for the presidency and endorsed Senator Barack Obama in June, she made clear that she was interested in becoming his running mate, and Mr. Obama and his associates signaled respectfully that she would get full consideration.
But there is mounting evidence that Mr. Obama’s interest in Mrs. Clinton for the post has faded considerably, if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him.
In conversations, Mr. Obama’s advisers discuss Mrs. Clinton’s role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Mr. Obama’s running mate.
When Mr. Obama appeared Sunday on “Meet the Press” on NBC he offered a description of the kind of person he was looking for, hinting that it would not be someone who was identified strongly with Washington, a choice that would appear to leave out Mrs. Clinton. His associates said this description reflected the lack of serious thought being given to Mrs. Clinton for the post.
The feeling goes both ways. Mrs. Clinton has told associates in recent days that she thinks there is little chance Mr. Obama will pick her and that she views the public pronouncements by some of Mr. Obama’s aides that she is under review as nothing more than a courtesy.
She has not been asked to provide written documentation to the committee vetting the background of candidates for Mr. Obama. Although Mrs. Clinton probably needs less flyspecking than almost anyone else in the field — considering how long she has been in public life and how intensively her past has been examined — the silence from that corner is being taken by Mrs. Clinton’s advisers as evidence of where she stands on Mr. Obama’s vice presidential list.
Mrs. Clinton’s boosters have not given up. “If he picks Hillary he gets her 18 million supporters and we would win in a cakewalk and control the White House for 16 years,” Terry McAuliffe, who was the chairman of her campaign, said Sunday in an interview.
Yet even Mr. McAuliffe, in a separate interview on MSNBC on Monday morning, seemed to acknowledge the diminished chances of Mrs. Clinton’s ending up on the ticket when he said he expected her role at the convention to consist of delivering a speech on Tuesday night. (If history is any guide, the vice presidential candidate speaks on Wednesday night; Mr. Obama’s advisers said they had not decided when Mrs. Clinton would speak.)
By every indication, Mr. Obama has not reached a decision. Given the political strength Mrs. Clinton exhibited as she dueled with Mr. Obama to the end of the primary season, it is conceivable — say, if polls over the next few weeks suddenly show him struggling against Senator John McCain — that Mr. Obama would turn to her. But his associates describe that as unlikely, saying that for a variety of reasons, Mr. Obama is not looking to have her as a running mate or serving with him in the White House.
Mr. Obama’s aides are confident that the passions of the primary season have given way to a more pragmatic view among Mrs. Clinton’s supporters and that Mr. Obama would not risk a major backlash from women or other constituencies associated with her if the vice presidential slot goes to someone else.
But the Obama camp has done little in public to prepare Clinton supporters for the increasing likelihood that she will not be on the ticket. There is no shortage of speculation among Mrs. Clinton’s supporters that she is very much in the running as Mr. Obama begins closing in on a decision.
The list of potential candidates includes Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, as well as Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, and other names of varying degrees of plausibility. The Democratic convention begins Aug. 25 in Denver, and Mr. Obama was said to be considering an announcement the week before, although aides said it could be earlier.
The arguments for picking Mrs. Clinton have always been highly pragmatic, based more on electoral politics than anything else, as Mr. McAuliffe suggested in pointing to the vote-getting power she had exhibited. (For what it is worth, some of Mr. McCain’s advisers said they viewed Mrs. Clinton as the single strongest candidate Mr. Obama could pick for those same reasons.)
Those arguments have not held much sway with Mr. Obama or his inner circle. They have indicated that any political benefits gained by putting Mrs. Clinton on the ticket would be outweighed by the costs.
Mr. Obama’s advisers say that a central message of his campaign — that he would represent a break from the way politics are conducted in Washington — would be tarnished by the simple act of linking himself to the family that has dominated Democratic politics since Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992.
In addition, a campaign marked by tight control and few displays of infighting (a structure that Mr. Obama’s advisers would like to replicate in the White House should he win) would, some of Mr. Obama’s associates said, be undermined by trying to merge with the Clintons. Several of his associates said they were particularly wary of trying to manage a campaign that included Mr. Clinton.
All this takes place against a backdrop of wary relations between the two campaigns. Strikingly, other than Mrs. Clinton’s former policy director, Neera Tanden, no other members of her current inner circle have found their way into the Obama camp. (Patti Solis Doyle, who was Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager but was forced out in a shakeup last February, is now in charge of setting up the vice presidential operation for Mr. Obama.)
There is also continued grousing within Mrs. Clinton’s circle that Mr. Obama is not doing more to help her pay off her debt, and continued grousing within Mr. Obama’s circle that Mrs. Clinton expects him to do much to help her repay her debt.
But Mrs. Clinton has made clear that she will do whatever Mr. Obama wants and has arranged a crowded schedule of appearances over the next two months on Mr. Obama’s behalf — some with him, but most on her own, an aide said.
www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/us/politics/29dems.html?_r=1&oref=slogin